人工智能时代人类的进化与重生 [正版]英文原版 The Art of Thinking Clearly 清醒思考的艺术

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书名：The Art of Thinking Clearly 清醒思考的艺术
作者：Rolf Dobelli
出版社名称：Harper
出版时间：2014
语种：英文 
ISBN：9780062343963
商品尺寸：10.6 x 2.4 x 17.1 cm
包装：简装
页数：384

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精彩书评：
“怎样当一个明白人？我推荐两本书，第1本《清醒思考的艺术》，第二本《明智行动的艺术》。这两本书的作者是同一个人，叫罗尔夫•多贝里，德国人。我之所以推荐这两本书，除了他的笔法相对来说比较轻松诙谐之外，更重要的原因是，作者用一种坦白的方式面对别人，也面对自己，谁都甭想骗谁。”   ——罗振宇《罗辑思维》创始人
 
“罗尔夫•多贝里精彩地描绘了成功的钥匙就在思考的艺术之中。谁不想老被思考的陷阱绊倒，就必须阅读这本书。”   ——艾里斯•博尼特 哈佛大学决策科学实验室
 
“阅读《清醒思考的艺术》是一种享受，你绝不会后悔！本书兼具现实性和科学性，精彩绝伦。”   ——克劳迪奥•费瑟尔 瑞士麦肯锡公司CEO
 
“《清醒思考的艺术》会彻底改变你的思维方式！”   ——丹•戈尔茨坦 伦敦商学院教授
 
“《清醒思考的艺术》开启了令人眼前一亮的崭新视野。罗尔夫•多贝里的文字令人深思，见解独到，生动精彩，能够引发读者无尽的思考。”  ——克里斯托弗•弗朗兹 德国汉莎航空公司董事长
 
“罗尔夫•多贝里既有专业知识，又有创造才能，这是自文艺复兴结束以来少有的组合。”  ——《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆•塔勒布

The Art of Thinking Clearly by world-class thinker and entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli is an eye-opening look at human psychology and reasoning — essential reading for anyone who wants to avoid “cognitive errors” and make better choices in all aspects of their lives.
Have you ever: Invested time in something that, with hindsight, just wasn’t worth it? Or continued doing something you knew was bad for you? These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better decisions.
Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable book will change the way you think and transform your decision-making—work, at home, every day. It reveals, in 99 short chapters, the most common errors of judgment, and how to avoid them.

Review
“A fireworks show of insights into how our minds work. If you want to avoid tripping on cognitive errors, read this book.” —Iris Bohnet, Professor and Academic Dean, Harvard Kennedy School, Director of the Harvard Decision Science Laboratory
“Dobelli examines our most common decision-making failings with engaging eloquence and describes how to counter them with instructive good sense.” —Robert Cialdini, author ofInfluence
“… a serious examination of the faulty reasoning that leads to repeated mistakes by individuals, businesses, and nations… In this fascinating book, Dobelli does not offer a recipe for happiness but a well-considered treatise on avoiding ‘self-induced unhappiness.’”  —Booklist (starred review)
“…easy-going prose…what [Dobelli] does is pinpoint exactly the assumptions, bias and illusions that shape our thinking and decision-making processes in both business and personal relationships that can cost us dearly as individuals and as a society.”  —Financial Times

有时候，清晰的思考反而是一种浪费。
有时候，凭借直觉去决定，你会后悔莫及。
本书是横跨心理学、哲学、企管等领域，涵盖52个生活、工作、投资、爱情上常见思考错误的经典作品！
The Art of Thinking Clearly《清醒思考的艺术》不仅指出思考错误，更提出有效对抗妙招，预防掉入隐形思考陷阱，让你看清思考盲点，清除决策障碍，选对思考方法，做出正确选择。
罗尔夫•多贝里既有深邃的洞察能力，又有出色的讲故事能力，穿插生活趣事、名人轶事、历史故事、爱情关系、投资理财、股票买卖、心理学实验等，叙述丰富、幽默，耐人寻味。
躁动的年代，我们需要一本锻炼独立思考的书！
We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices.The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we dont need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this book will change the way you think and transform your decision making. From why you should not accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you dont like, from why its so hard to predict the future to why you shouldnt watch the news,The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

罗尔夫•多贝里（Rolf Dobelli），1966年出生于瑞士琉森，瑞士圣加仑大学（University of St. Gallen）企管硕士、经济哲学博士，全球商业书摘网站getAbstract创办人之一，并创立全球杰出人才社群机构Zurich.minds，会员包括《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布、诺贝尔化学奖得主库尔特•维特里希等。多贝里长期担任《法兰克福汇报》（Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung）及瑞士《周日报》（Sonntags Zeitung）专栏作者，撰写各种有关认知偏误的文章，帮助人们在个人生活、经商、理财等方面清楚思考，做对决定。《清醒思考的艺术》一经出版，即荣登《明镜周刊》畅销书冠军宝座，在德国成为率先击败《乔布斯传》的作品，并被翻译成13国语言。多贝里曾旅居中国香港、澳大利亚、英国及美国，现居于瑞士琉森。
Rolf Dobelli is a bestselling writer and entrepreneur. He is the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of some of the worlds most famed and distinguished thinkers, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs, and a cofounder of getAbstract, the worlds largest publisher of compressed knowledge. A novelist, sailor, and pilot, he lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.

No matter where Rick looks, he sees rock stars. They appear on television, on the front pages of magazines, in concert programs, and at online fan sites. Their songs are unavoidable—in the mall, on his playlist, in the gym. The rock stars are everywhere. There are lots of them. And they are successful. Motivated by the stories of countless guitar heroes, Rick starts a band. Will he make it big? The probability lies a fraction above zero. Like so many others, he will most likely end up in the graveyard of failed musicians. This burial ground houses ten thousand times more musicians than the stage does, but no journalist is interested infailures—with the exception of fallen superstars. This makes the cemetery invisible to outsiders.
In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding. As an outsider, you (like Rick) succumb to an illusion, and you mistake how minuscule the probability of success really is. Rick, like so many others, is a victim of survivorship bias.
Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books will never sell. Behind them are another hundred who haven’t found publishers. Behind them are yet another hundred whose unfinished manuscripts gather dust in drawers. And behind each one of these are a hundred people who dream of—one day—writing a book. You, however, hear of only the successful authors (these days, many of them self-published) and fail to recognize how unlikely literary success is. The same goes for photographers, entrepreneurs, artists, athletes, architects, Nobel Prize winners, television presenters, and beauty queens. The media is not interested in digging around in the graveyards of the unsuccessful. Nor is this its job. To elude the survivorship bias, you must do the digging yourself.
You will also come across survivorship bias when dealing with money and risk: Imagine that a friend founds a start-up. You belong to the circle of potential investors and you sense a real opportunity: This could be the next Google. Maybe you’ll be lucky but what is the reality? The most likely scenario is that the company will not even make it off the starting line. The second most likely outcome is that it will go bankrupt within three years. Of the companies that survive these first three years, most never grow to more than ten employees. So, should you never put your hard-earned money at risk? Not necessarily. But you should recognize that the survivorship: bias is at work, distorting the probability of success like cut glass.