正版 重大事故紧急预警决策的分析和优化模式(英文版)

Contents
1 Introdu*ion 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Wh* Is Emergency Warning 3
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacu*ion in China 5
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toc Gas Leakage Resulting in Evacu*ion 5
1.3.2 St*istical Analysis of Evacu*ion Events 6
1.4 Public Prote*ion Methods 9
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacu*ion 9
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Pe*onnel Evacu*ion for Toc Gas Leakage 12
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacu*ion Area 15
1.5 Evacu*ion Scale Esti*tion 18
1.5.1 Popul*ion Scale Esti*tion Methods 18
1.5.2 The Influence Fa*o* on the Scale of Evacu*ion 21
1.6 Research St*us of Emergency Decisions Both * Home and Abroad 22
1.7 Research Ob*e*s and Chara*eristics 26
References 27
2 Emergency Warning System for Ma*or Accidents 31
2.1 Emergency Warning System 31
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System 31
2.1.2 Fun*ions of Early Warning System 32
2.1.3 Implement*ion of Early Warning System 34
2.2 Liter*ure Review on References of Emergency Early Warning Both * Home and Abroad 36
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United St*es 36
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan 38
2.2.3 Public Alert System from Other Foreign Organiz*ions 40
2.2.4 Public Alerting System in China 41
2.3 The Design and Implement*ion of Early Warning System for Ma*or Accidents 43
2.3.1 FM Broadcasting Technology Based on Different Loc*ions 43
2.3.2 The Stru*ure of Public Alert System Based on FM Broadcast for Different Addresses 46
2.3.3 Researches on Hardware Development of Indoor Alarm Receive* 49
2.3.4 Researches on Embedded Software Development of Indoor Alarm Receive* 54
2.4 Sum*ry of the Chapter 63
References 63
3 Com*nic*ion and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.1 An Overview of Researches on Com*nic*ion and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.2 The Influence Fa*o* of Early Warning Com*nic*ion 67
3.3 General Rules for Alert Infor*tion Com*nic*ion 71
3.4 Modeling of the Com*nic*ion Rules of Alert for Individual Household 74
3.4.1 The Establis*ent of the Model 74
3.4.2 The Solution of the Model 77
3.5 The Si*l*ion and Results Analysis of Com*nic*ion Model of Alerts for Individual Household 79
3.5.1 Si*l*ion Results and Analysis of the Com*nic*ion Time 80
3.5.2 The Si*l*ion Results and Analysis of Closeness of Social Rel*ionship 81
3.5.3 Si*l*ion Analysis and Results of Deployment Proportion of Alert Receive* 83
3.6 Sum*ry of the Chapter 83
References 85
4 Regional Evacu*ion Modeling for Toc Cloud Releases and Its Applic*ion in Str*egy Assessment of Evacu*ion Warning 89
4.1 Methods 90
4.1.1 Description of Regional Evacu*ion Network 90
4.1.2 Diffusion of Evacu*ion Warning 90
4.1.3 Loading of Evacu*ion Flow 94
4.1.4 Movement Through Regional Evacu*ion Network 95
4.2 Health Consequence Analysis 99
4.2.1 Accident Consequence Si*l*ion 99
4.2.2 Exposure Dose Calcul*ion 99
4.2.3 Conditional Probability of Consequences 100
4.3 Case Study and Discussion in China 100
4.3.1 Preliminaries 100
4.3.2 Evacu*ion Efficiency Under Different Evacu*ion Warning Str*egies 103
4.3.3 Health Consequences of Accidents Under Different Evacu*ion Warning Str*egies 107
4.4 Sum*ry of the Chapter 108
References 109
5 Multi-ob*e*ive Route Planning Model and Algorit* for Emergency Management 113
5.1 Liter*ure Review 113
5.2 Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 116
5.2.1 Definition of Variables and Paramete* 116
5.2.2 Bounded R*ionality in Decision-Making 117
5.2.3 Multi-ob*e*ive Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 117
5.3 Preliminaries 118
5.3.1 Classical Algorit*s to Solve Single-Ob*e*ive Shortest P*h Problem 118
5.3.2 Constru*ion of Auliary Fun*ions 119
5.3.3 Main-Ob*e*ive Method to Deal with Multi-ob*e*ive Optimiz*ion Problems 121
5.4 Proposed Heuristic Algorit* 122
5.4.1 St*ic Heuristic Algorit* to Solve Model I Based on A* Algorit* 123
5.4.2 Dynamic Heuristic Algorit* to Solve Model I Based on D* Algorit* 124
5.4.3 Algorit* Advantage 124
5.5 Comput*ional Experiments 125
5.5.1 Results of Model III When s Varies Within the Interval 125
5.5.2 Results of Model I in St*ic Environments 126
5.5.3 Results of Model I in Dynamic Environments 147
5.6 Sum*ry of the Chapter 148
References 149
6 Evacu*ion Risk Assessment of Regional Evacu*ion for Ma*or Accidents and Its Applic*ion in Emergency Planning 151
6.1 Evacu*ion Risk Assessment Process 154
6.1.1 Calcul*ion of Received Dose 154
6.1.2 Conditional Probability Calcul*ion of Health Consequence 158
6.1.3 Determin*ion of Occurrence Probability 158
6.1.4 Calcul*ion of Individual Evacu*ion Risk 158
6.1.5 Acceptable Risk Level 159
6.2 The Applic*ion in Emergency Planning 161

本书从应急决策与优化的角度研究重大事故的预警决策问题，使读者了解应急预警决策理论及优化方法。