数据.模型与决策(英文版 第12版)/管理科学与工程经典丛书 伯纳德·W.泰勒 著 经管、励志 文轩网

Preface i
1Management Science1
The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving2
Time Out: for Pioneers in Management Science5
Management Science Application:
Room Pricing with Management Science at Marriott6
Management Science and Business Analytics7 Model Building: Break-Even Analysis8 Computer Solution12
Management Science Modeling Techniques15
Management Science Application: The Application of Management Science with Spreadsheets16
Business Usage of Management Science Techniques18
Management Science Application:
Management Science in Health Care19
Management Science Application:
Allocating Seat Capacity on Indian Railways Using Linear Programming32
Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models32
Management Science Application:
Renewable Energy Investment Decisions at GE Energy44
A Minimization Model Example44
Management Science Application:
Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich (South America)48
Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems50
Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems53
Summary 54 • Example Problem Solutions 54 • Problems 58 • Case Problems 60
3Linear Programming: Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis63
Management Science Models in Decision Support
Systems20
Summary 21 • Problems 22 • Case Problems 24
2Linear Programming: Model Formulation and Graphical Solution27
Model Formulation28
A Maximization Model Example28
Time Out: for George B. Dantzig29
Computer Solution64
Management Science Application:
Scheduling Air Ambulance Service in Ontario (Canada)69
Management Science Application:
Improving Profitability at Norske Skog with Linear Programming70
Sensitivity Analysis71
Summary 82 • Example Problem Solution 82 • Problems 85 • Case Problems 89
i
iiCONTENTS
4Linear Programming: Modeling Examples92
A Product Mix Example93
Time Out: for George B. Dantzig98
A Diet Example98
An Investment Example101
Management Science Application: A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at GE Asset Management106
A Marketing Example107
A Transportation Example111 A Blend Example114
A Multiperiod Scheduling Example118
Management Science Application: Linear Programming Blending Applications in the Petroleum Industry119
Management Science Application: Employee Scheduling with Management Science121
A Data Envelopment Analysis Example123
Management Science Application:
Evaluating American Red Cross Chapters Using DEA125
Summary 127 • Example Problem Solution 128 • Problems 130 • Case Problems 141
5Integer Programming146
Integer Programming Models147
Management Science Application: Selecting Volunteer Teams at Eli Lilly to Serve
in Impoverished Communities150
Integer Programming Graphical Solution150 Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems
with Excel and QM for Windows152
Time Out: for Ralph E. Gomory153
Management Science Application:
Scheduling Appeals Court Sessions in Virginia with Integer Programming156
Management Science Application: Forming Business Case Student Teams at Indiana University161
0？1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples161
Management Science Application: A Set Covering Model for Determining Fire Station Locations in Istanbul170
Summary 170 • Example Problem Solution 171• Problems 171 • Case Problems 175
6Transportaion, Transshipment, and Assignment Problems185
The Transportation Model186
Time Out: for Frank L. Hitchcock and Tjalling
C. Koopmans188
Management Science Application: Reducing Transportation Costs in the California Cut Flower Industry189
Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem189
Management Science Application: Analyzing Container Traffic Potential at the Port of Davisville (RI)195
Management Science Application:
Transporting Mail at the U.S. Postal Service199
The Assignment Model199 Computer Solution of an Assignment
Problem200
Management Science Application:
Supplying Empty Freight Cars at Union Pacific Railroad203
Management Science Application:
Assigning Umpire Crews at Professional Tennis Tournaments204
Summary 205 • Example Problem Solution 205 • Problems 206 • Case Problems 213
7Network Flow Models222
Network Components223
The Shortest Route Problem224
The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem232
Management Science Application:
Determining Optimal Milk Collection Routes in Italy235
The Maximal Flow Problem236
Time Out: for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr., and D. R. Fulkerson237
Management Science Application:
Distributing Railway Cars to Customers at CSX238
Summary 243 • Example Problem Solution 243 • Problems 245 • Case Problems 251
8Project Management258
The Elements of Project Management259
Management Science Application: Google, Facebook, and Apple “Cloud” Projects261
Time Out: for Henry Gantt265
Management Science Application: An Interstate Highway Construction Project in Virginia267
CPM/PERT268
Time Out: for Morgan R. Walker, James
E. Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm270
Probabilistic Activity Times277
Management Science Application: Global Construction Mega-Projects283
Microsoft Project284
Project Crashing and Time？Cost Trade-Off288
Management Science Application:
Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11292
Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model293
Summary 300 • Example Problem Solution 301 • Problems 303 • Case Problems 308
9Multicriteria Decision Making312
Goal Programming313
Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming317 Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems
with QM for Windows and Excel320
Management Science Application:
Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC320
CONTENTSiii
Time Out: for Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper324
The Analytical Hierarchy Process327
Management Science Application: Selecting Sustainable Transportation Routes Across the Pyrenees Using AHP327
Management Science Application: Ranking Twentieth-Century Army Generals Using AHP 334
Scoring Models337
Management Science Application: A Scoring Model for Determining U.S. Army Installation Regions339
Summary 339 • Example Problem Solutions 340 • Problems 343 • Case Problems353
10Nonlinear
Programming357
Nonlinear Profit Analysis358
Constrained Optimization361
Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel363
A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints367
Management Science Application: Making Solar Power Decisions at Lockheed Martin with Nonlinear Programming368
Nonlinear Model Examples369
Summary 374 • Example Problem Solution 375 • Problems 375 • Case Problems377
11Decision Analysis379
Components of Decision Making380
Decision Making without Probabilities381
Management Science Application: Planning for Terrorist Attacks and Epidemics in Los Angeles County with Decision Analysis388
Decision Making with Probabilities388
Decision Analysis With Additional Information402
Management Science Application:
Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant408
ivCONTENTS
Utility409
Summary 410 • Example Problem Solution 411 • Problems 414 • Case Problems 420
12Queuing Analysis425
Elements of Waiting Line Analysis426
The Single-Server Waiting Line System427
Time Out: for Agner Krarup Erlang428
Management Science Application: Using Queuing Analysis to Design Health Centers in Abu Dhabi435
Undefined and Constant Service Times436 Finite Queue Length439
Management Science Application: Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business442
Finite Calling Population442
The Multiple-Server Waiting Line445
Management Science Application: Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT&T448
Additional Types of Queuing Systems450
Summary 451 • Example Problem Solution 451 • Problems 453 • Case Problems 456
13Simulation459
The Monte Carlo Process460
Time Out: for John Von Neumann465
Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets465
Simulation of a Queuing System470
Management Science Application: Planning for Catastrophic Disease Outbreaks Using Simulation473
Continuous Probability Distributions474 Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results479
Management Science Application: Predicting Somalian Pirate Attacks Using Simulation480
Crystal Ball481
Verification of the Simulation Model488 Areas of Simulation Application488
Summary 489 • Example Problem Solution 490 • Problems 493 • Case Problems 496
14Forecasting500
Forecasting Components501
Management Science Application:
Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC503
Time Series Methods504
Management Science Application:
Forecasting Empty Shipping Containers at CSAV (Chile)508
Management Science Application:
Forecasting at Heineken USA513
Forecast Accuracy516
Time Series Forecasting Using Excel520
Management Science Application: Demand Forecasting at Zara521
Regression Methods524
Management Science Application: An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model528
Data Mining533
Summary 534 • Example Problem Solutions 534 • Problems 537 • Case Problems 544
15Inventory Management548
Elements of Inventory Management549
Management Science Application: Inventory Optimization at Procter & Gamble551
Inventory Control Systems552
Time Out: for Ford Harris553 Economic Order Quantity Models553 The Basic EOQ Model554
The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt559
The EOQ Model with Shortages562
Management Science Application:
Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell565
EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows565 EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM566 Quantity Discounts567
Management Science Application: Quantity Discount Orders at Mars570
Reorder Point571
Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels573
CONTENTSv
Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory
Appendix A
Normal and Chi-Square Tables 584
Appendix B
Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 586
Appendix C
The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 590
Glossary 592